https://www.umsu.de/blog/ Musings in Analytic Philosophy https://www.umsu.de/blog/2021/740#c2467 https://www.umsu.de/blog/2021/740#c2467 Wed, 15 Apr 2026 15:26:53 +0000 https://www.umsu.de/blog/2026/828#c2464 https://www.umsu.de/blog/2026/828#c2464 Mon, 23 Feb 2026 02:35:59 +0000 that of estimation of the binomial parameter n from a single observation (eg Jeffrey's tramcar). If p is known, then the generalized Bayes estimator of n with improper prior pi(n) ~ 1/n is 1/p. The likelihood ratio comparing two hypothetical n's should be (1-p)^(n1-n2) * n1/n2, so if p is small and n1=1, then it increases by 1 for each increment of n2.]]> https://www.umsu.de/blog/2026/828#c2463 https://www.umsu.de/blog/2026/828#c2463 Sat, 21 Feb 2026 06:31:41 +0000 different from "I inhabit a universe"

I'm feeling a bit dull, but doesn't the former imply non-independence of p's ie existence of life in U1 extinguishes probability of occurrence in the other universes? ]]> https://www.umsu.de/blog/2025/822#c2462 https://www.umsu.de/blog/2025/822#c2462 Mon, 16 Feb 2026 21:01:22 +0000
As an aside, using complete expansions of models that is, structures containing a constant for every member of the expanded model, is a usual device in elementary model theory (Robinson diagrams etc.). So in this respect the expansion based semantics for the quantifiers matches model theoretic perspectives rather well.]]> https://www.umsu.de/blog/2025/822#c2461 https://www.umsu.de/blog/2025/822#c2461 Mon, 16 Feb 2026 16:12:31 +0000 https://www.umsu.de/blog/2025/822#c2460 https://www.umsu.de/blog/2025/822#c2460 Sat, 14 Feb 2026 22:47:34 +0000
]]> https://www.umsu.de/blog/2026/827#c2458 https://www.umsu.de/blog/2026/827#c2458 Wed, 11 Feb 2026 06:20:59 +0000 https://www.umsu.de/blog/2026/826#c2457 https://www.umsu.de/blog/2026/826#c2457 Fri, 23 Jan 2026 12:20:49 +0000